Thursday, January 3, 2008

Scaling new peaks

Gold opened the 2008 trading year by breaking over, and then rising beyond the pinnacle it achieved last year, indeed in any year. A massive surge in crude oil (sparked by the latest violence in Nigeria) to its own record of $100 a barrel and a markedly softer US dollar (last seen at 75.93 on the index) on the heels of the ISM data for last month's industrial activity (read: anemic) contributed to the metal's successful attempt at planting the flag on this market's Mt. Everest. Although conditions remained on the thin side as part of the trading crowd will not return until Monday, the move today suggests that funds may have made additional moves into bullion with Pakistan's situation remaining on edge and global investors obviously still nervous about financial markets as we begin the new year. The stock market certainly did not start 2008 on a reassuring note...(but, see below). No market was going to ignore triple-digit oil and weak industrial activity. Thus, the construction spending news got buried today, despite showing there is life remaining in the sector.

New York spot bullion closed substantially higher, finally fulfilling the 27 year old dream of gold bugs everywhere. The metal rose $23.40 to $856.70 bid, after ticking as high as $861.80 on the offer side intra-day, this, as market participants made the expectations they had expressed last month a reality. We can expect additional gains if the financial media disseminates the news and trend-followers pile into the market on speculative emotion. Silver gained 38 cents to $15.15 but remains under the threat of underperforming gold as demand for industrial uses hangs in the balance should an economic contraction become deeper than expected. Today's ISM data did not bode well for the silver camp as far as strong industrial offtake is concerned, and the metal will need fresh inflows of investment money to maintain here and try for more. Platinum on the other hand, showed no worries about users substituting it with palladium and rose an additional $11 to $1539.00 per ounce.

As the market replays the events that gave it notoriety back in January of 1980, we can certainly expect to hear ultra-bullish chatter pick up significantly and argue that this is 'only the beginning' of...something. The news clippings we saved from the era are also rife with confident predictions (some of them, by the same writers still in circulation today) of four-digit prices and more. For 1980 and 1981, that is. While there is no debate that price moves may now become highly unpredictable (in either direction) since we have waded into basically uncharted waters, the mere fact that speculative positions are approaching a quarter of a million contracts and that the addition of not too many more of them would tilt the market into heavily overbought (as opposed to just simply overbought) territory should also be in the back of the minds of latecomers to this party. Tread with utmost care. Or, as a classic (and continuing) gold bull (Ned Schmidt) just said: "Buy low, don't buy high." Hope he doesn't get labeled a 'bear' for merely stating the obvious.

We, on the other hand, will continue to bring you all sides of the gold story, pleasant reading, or not. It has been our task from the beginning to cover the less often publicized aspects and stories of the market. The rest is (as always) up to you, the individual reader/investor. With this in mind, let's take a look at what Marketwatch's Mark Hulbert sees in the contrarian catacombs these days:

"Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average gold-market exposure among a group of short-term gold timing newsletters. As of Monday night, the HGNSI stood at 66.1%. That's 25 percentage points higher than where this gold sentiment index stood one year ago.

To be sure, given gold bullion's strength during calendar 2007, during which a price of an ounce rose by more than $200, an increase in bullishness is entirely normal. Still, at 66.1%, the HGNSI is getting within shouting distance of levels that would indicate a lot of optimism and euphoria among the gold timers.

On the contrarian grounds that markets like to climb walls of worry, the stock market would appear to have a lot more upside potential than gold.

Note carefully that this forecast focuses on relative performance, and thus does not mean that gold will necessarily have a terrible year. The contrarian forecast for 2008 could turn out to be correct with both stocks and gold rising, for example, but with stocks rising even more.

And, by the same token, this forecast does not mean that stocks will necessarily have a great year. It could also turn out to be correct with stocks having a mediocre year, or worse, but with gold have an even worse year."

Wonder if Mr. Hulbert is vying for the MOTY award himself, by bringing his readers such potentially 'disturbing' news on the very day that gold makes a new high...

In the interim, watch the spectacle unfold. Such events do not appear to come by very often.

You might wish to visit www.kereport.com for and interview I did today with host al Korelin about gold and China. I hope you will find it informative. Thanks.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/jan012008B.html



Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Gold price breaks 28-year record to hit new peak


Unrest in Pakistan, a faltering dollar and surging oil futures sent the price of gold soaring to a record high on Wednesday, beating its previous highest level set 28 years ago.

The precious metal rose to 859 US dollars, smashing its peak of 850 US dollars an ounce reached on January 21, 1980.

It later slipped back to 855.28 US dollars on profit-taking.

Price movements were slightly exaggerated by the lightness of holiday trade, which meant large transactions could influence the market more than usual, analysts said.

"Although conditions remain on the thin side ... (gold's) move suggests that funds may have made additional moves into bullion with Pakistan remaining on edge and investors nervous about financial markets," said Kitco Bullion Dealers' analyst Jon Nadler.

"A sharp rise in crude oil ... and a softer US dollar" contributed to gold's rally, he added.

Political unrest in Pakistan has led to interest in gold because the precious metal is regarded as a haven in troubled times.

Gold rallied "as the dollar remained in negative territory while safe-haven related buying continued to be seen in reaction to violence in Pakistan," said James Moore of thebulliondesk.com.

Gold prices were also winning support from a weak dollar, which fell against the euro on Wednesday in the wake of disappointing US manufacturing data, dealers said.

A falling US unit encourages demand for dollar-priced commodities such as gold because it makes them cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies. Higher oil prices also encourage the buying of gold.

Gold is seen as a defence against inflation, which is being driven in many countries by higher oil prices.

http://news.smh.com.au/gold-price-breaks-28year-record-to-hit-new-peak/20080103-1jxx.html

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

GOLD BULLION - A BELATED CHRISTMAS GIFT

I am spending a few days of the Christmas break at a village along the coastline of the Cape Town Peninsula. It is quaint, picturesque and simply an ideal location for enjoying quality time with the family. The only drawback is that it does become quite windy on occasion - at best not a highly predictable event. This reminds me of the erratic behavior of gold bullion - you just never know with what action the yellow metal is going to surprise you next, making it infamously difficult to predict short-term movements.

And true to form, just as traders were bargaining on a quiet Christmas period, gold again startled with a $15 jump, taking the price well clear of the $800-level. Interestingly, gold has never in its history recorded a month-end price above $800 and only closed above this level on two days during its 1980 surge, namely: $830 on January 18, 1980, and $850 on January 21, 1980. That, however, represented a blow-off with the price plunging to $737.50 a day later and falling further to $659 by the end of January.

It would seem that gold bulls may very well have reason next week to toast bullion saying good-bye to 2007 having achieved the $800 month-end milestone. There is, however, quite an important difference between 1980 and the present situation. In 1980 gold was in a parabolic rise, whereas since the low of $250 in 2001 gold has been rising methodically, mapping out consistently higher lows.

The gold price has not only strengthened in US dollar terms, but has in fact been appreciating in most currencies - an indication of increased investment demand. The following graph and table (not yet reflecting the post-Christmas rally) clearly illustrate this phenomenon.

The pressing question is how sustainable bullion's uptrend is. Although the technical picture indicates a primary bull market, the fundamental situation offers both bullish and bearish arguments.

The arguments in favor of a rising gold price have been well documented and include: the possibility of ongoing pressure on the US dollar, increasing global inflationary expectations, a surging oil price, minimal new mine production, and the fact that central bank sales are capped through the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA II).

The bears, on the other hand, point to: record long speculator positions that have in the past been strongly correlated with gold price corrections, potentially lower fabrication demand from India (as a result of the higher price), and a slowdown in producer de-hedging as the global hedge book diminishes. Additionally, a seasonally weak period is approaching from February to April as illustrated by the graph below.

I have over the past few months often conveyed my bullish stance on gold bullion and gold-mining stocks. Examples of these articles include: "Gold: forwards and upwards" (September 14, 2007) and "Smart money bets on surging gold price" (September 4, 2007). I see no reason to change this position - from both an absolute and safe-haven point of view. I would, however, caution that one should not chase a rising gold price in an attempt to stock up on the various gold-related instruments. Rather bide your time and wait for the short-term corrections that occur regularly, perhaps coinciding with the advent of seasonal weakness in a few weeks' time.

The final word goes to George Bernard Shaw who said: "The most important thing about money is to maintain its stability… You have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of members of the government. With due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/duplessis122907.html